Thesis Library
See how popular macro trades hold up across rates, FX, commodities, equities, and credit — stress-tested against 1,400+ heterodox economic models.
📉Rates2 theses
60/40 is dead in inflation regimes
Rebalance away from 60/40 — stock-bond correlation flips positive in high inflation regimes
“Yes: when inflation is the constraint, your ‘diversifier’ stops diversifying and starts helping equities dig the hole. Just don’t confuse a regime framework with a permanent obitua…”
Anything but bonds
BofA's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, has declared that the first half of the 2020s delivered what he terms “bond-market humiliation,” with long-…
“You brought a drawdown chart to a regime fight. Bonds can be a terrible investment and still be the safe haven—sometimes because growth collapses, sometimes because the state force…”
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